After twenty years of independence, politicians in Ukraine still remind me of fairy tale characters: kingmakers and the puppet court, villains from wild east, and a princess with the golden braided hair, shining bright in the kingdom, where shades of grey abound.
She first made a fortune as a businesswoman trading Russian gas (hence the nickname, “gas princess”), entered politics, and in 2004 turned into the charismatic leader of the Orange Revolution, which catapulted her to the Prime Minister position
Aspiring to become a president, she lost by a small margin to the “orange villain” Yanukovych. A flamboyant leader of the opposition and the most influential woman in Ukraine (according to magazine Focus), abroad she inspires fashion icons with her hairstyle and outfits, and makes the seasoned diplomats in Washington and Brussels melt. This is Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian Rapunzel.
On October 11, 2011, Yulia was sentenced to seven years in prison on charges of abuse of office in 2009, when she agreed to high the gas price without her cabinet’s approval. The political show trial did not allow for a proper defense and based its sentence on Soviet-time laws. Recently new investigations began regarding her involvement in a contract-style murder and dealings with a former Prime Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Lazarenko in 1996-97, when she was a president of the United Energy Systems, a private company with governmental patronage, supplying Russian gas to Ukraine.
The Tricky Gas Deal
Ukraine, sandwiched between European Union and Russia, serves as a main (so far) gas corridor for Russian’s export to the EU (~80%). 2/3 of Gazprom’s income is gas sold to Ukraine. This is why when Russian turned off the gas tap in 2009, everyone in Europe got nervous and cold. PM Yulia met with Putin in Kremlin and in five hours reached an agreement that restored gas flow to Ukraine and the EU. Both sides also agreed to no longer use intermediaries. The European Union sighed with a relief and turned a blind eye on the questionable deal.
International Community’s Response
Brussels, Washington and even Moscow denounced the sentence as politically motivated and cautioned Kyiv to free Yulia. Western officials called situation “democracy on trial” and “deeply disappointing”, to quote Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. This jail sentence puts into peril the four year long negotiations on the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade and Association Agreements. It also played into hand of skeptics, dreaming to sabotage Ukraine’s integration into the EU, leaving only Poland its true supporter. Simultaneously, Russia offered to become a member in a Russian-led customs union and deep discounts on gas prices, without lectures on democratic values. And it is important to watch which way Ukraine swings, since it has turned into a bell-weather for democratic processes in Eastern Europe.
Behind the Curtains
With so much at stake for the fledging democracy, one must wonder what was Yanukovych and Co thinking?
Firstly, the most obvious explanation is political: Yulia would be the biggest threat to the incumbent regime during 2012 parliamentary and 2015 presidential elections. Hence it is convenient to eliminate the contender in favor of a handpicked successor. If Putin can do this with Khodorkovsky, then why not try the same in Ukraine? However, Ukraine is not Russia, as the former president Kuchma noted in his infamous book. This means that an aspiring candidate to the EU cannot jail an opposition leader and get away with it.
Secondly, some experts also believe that the trial was meant to push Russia to change the gas price for Ukraine and help shift the blame for the economic crisis from the current government.
Finally, powerful oligarchs that surround Yanukovych constantly fight for power and personal enrichment. Yulia’s gas agreement eliminated a gas intermediary, whose owner Dmytro Firtash had been craving a revenge ever since.
Who will climb Rapunzel’s long hair?
However, it is possible that jailing Yulia may backfire, as she is already referred to as “Slavic Joan of Arc” and a freedom fighter. And although Ukrainians may be disillusioned with politicians in general and Yulia in particular, they could still mobilize to defend justice. If not in order to help Yulia, then for their own sake and their children’s better future. If acted united, Yanukovych and his crew will join the list of fallen villains.
Maryna Yaroshchuk
Ukraine
IRES 2008 Alumna
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